The dark before the (nuclear) dawn

In the next few days the IAEA will release the full report on Iran. A few small details have emerged so far and the prognosis is not pretty.

We are rapidly approaching the point of no return, the time when options are limited by time and threat. It may even boil down to one of two necessary yet regrettable decisions: does Iran or Israel start the clash of civilizations? (WWIII to some)

I pray that there is some way to avoid a world-wide conflict, but with the Islamic Shia doomsday scenario ready to launch, I see no option to a quick peace without getting rid of the nuclear threat. We may escape this yet, at the last minute but odds at this point are against a yank out of the pit.

From The Washington Post November 6 by Joby Warrick

IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear capability

Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after 2003 — when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out its findings on Iran’s efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to hasfueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

No there isn't. Years of sanctions, finger-wagging and strongly-worded memos have done nothing to prevent Iran's bomb and by thinking there is still a way to persuade Iran to stop what they are doing is fantasy-based thinking. What possibly could be done to affect their decision to build a nuclear weapon? Why not just say "pretty please" and see how that plays.

Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

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