The tale of Tunisia and what the future holds

The shake--out continues and it looks as Islam will play a major role in the new governments now forming.  Will Tunisia become another sharia-compliant and ideologically driven society?  The eternal pessimist in me says yes, the optimist believes no.

Take your pick at this moment in time.


From the Fresno Bee April 10 by Karin Laub

Tough transition in Tunisia after 'Arab spring'  

TUNIS, Tunisia -- In the new Tunisia, a store window in the capital displays books that were banned under the former regime. Protesters shout for jobs or justice almost daily on tree-lined streets. And after half a century of one-man rule, Tunisians can choose from more than 50 political parties.

Yet the freedom that is intoxicating Tunisia comes with a sense of fragility, a fear that it could spin out of control. So helmeted troops backed by armored vehicles stand guard along the central Avenue Bourguiba in Tunis, and some buildings are ringed with barbed wire. Police have sealed off a plaza where Tunisians held days-long sit-ins not so long ago, and have fired tear gas to prevent new rallies there.

The contradictions playing out in Tunisia's streets show how this tiny country's burst of freedom is marred by a growing anxiety over the future. With elections coming up, liberals worry that democracy will bring the Islamists, perhaps the best-organized political movement in post-revolt Tunisia, to power. Economists fear that continued turmoil will scare off investors and tourists. And activists who helped drive out dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in January are concerned his die-hard supporters will try to regroup.

At stake is more than Tunisia itself. Just as Tunisia's overthrow of Ben Ali sparked anti-government uprisings across the Arab world, its success - or failure - in moving toward a stable democracy could once again send a strong signal to its neighbors.

"Tunisia has particular symbolic value as the first Arab revolution," said Shadi Hamid, an analyst at the Brookings Doha Center. "If it (the transition) fails, and you see outbreaks of violence or low-intensity civil conflict, that is going to further the arguments of Arab autocrats that democracy equals chaos and instability."

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